Cam Lafata / LafataCorp

NHL Tracker (Beta)/October 18, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 at 9:45 AM CT

No play tonight.

The model takes a side only when its own number beats the market by 5 points, a bar it is built to clear rarely. No club has played more than 10 games yet, so it is still learning this year's teams and leaning on last season until enough of the read is its own. Fewer positions, better ones.

2Games screened
0Plays
1On the radar

2026-27 season

Daily Analyzer
Pre-game
100.0% win rate · ROI +41.74% per stake · W2
2–0
+1.2%
Fade Bot
In-game, record only
65.5% win rate · ROI -22.20% per stake · W2
19–10
-29.7%

Return on capital. Green is up, red is down. Paper only.

On the radar

Closest to qualifying tonight

Carolina
Model lean
at
Calgary
Home

Carolina win probability

Model
70.0% Market
67.0%

The model leans Carolina at 70.0% against a market 67.0%, citing a seven-game win streak this season and a 10-3-0 run over its last 13 that mixes 9 games this season with 4 preseason games. That 3.0-point gap falls short of the 5-point threshold, so the game stays on the watch list.

EdgePass, 2.0 short
Points of edge over the market. The green zone is where the model plays.

Return on capital

2026-27 season to date, as a percentage of starting capital

Daily AnalyzerFade Bot
-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+1.2%-29.7%
Sep 29Oct 9Oct 17

Results

DateMatchupSystemPositionOddsFinalResultReturn
Oct 17 at Fade Bot PHI hold, 3rd −488 1–3 W +0.3%
Oct 17 at Fade Bot NSH hold, 2nd −233 2–5 W +1.3%
Oct 17 at Fade Bot SJS hold, 2nd −194 3–4 L -6.3%
Oct 17 at Fade Bot CAR hold, 3rd −733 3–2 W +0.2%
Oct 16 at Fade Bot ANA hold, 2nd −257 4–2 L -3.2%
Oct 16 at Fade Bot COL hold, 2nd −426 2–5 W +0.3%
Oct 15 at Fade Bot TOR hold, 3rd −108 5–4 L -10.0%
Oct 15 at Fade Bot VAN hold, 3rd −376 2–3 L -3.4%
Oct 15 at Fade Bot CHI hold, 2nd −233 3–4 W +1.1%
Oct 15 at Fade Bot NYI hold, 2nd −186 1–2 L -7.2%
Oct 14 at Fade Bot COL hold, 2nd −317 3–2 L -3.6%
Oct 13 at Fade Bot STL hold, 2nd −285 7–2 W +1.2%
Oct 13 at Fade Bot NYR hold, 2nd −178 1–4 W +4.0%
Oct 13 at Fade Bot WSH hold, 2nd −178 2–4 L -5.5%
Oct 10 at Fade Bot ANA hold, 2nd −245 4–2 W +1.1%
Oct 10 at Fade Bot TOR hold, 3rd −300 6–3 W +0.9%
Oct 10 at Fade Bot NSH hold, 2nd −170 2–3 L -7.6%
Oct 9 at Fade Bot WSH hold, 3rd −733 1–3 W +0.3%
Oct 9 at Fade Bot CBJ hold, 2nd −300 2–3 W +0.9%
Oct 6 at Fade Bot CHI hold, 2nd −213 2–4 W +3.2%
Oct 6 at Fade Bot UTA hold, 2nd −223 3–5 W +4.1%
Oct 4 at Fade Bot ANA hold, 2nd −194 2–3 W +3.6%
Oct 4 at Fade Bot NYR hold, 2nd −245 2–4 W +1.4%
Oct 4 at Fade Bot WPG hold, 3rd −525 3–2 W +0.3%
Oct 3 at Daily Analyzer COL ML −270 1–6 W +0.7%
Oct 3 at Fade Bot PHI hold, 2nd −178 3–2 L -5.4%
Oct 2 at Fade Bot STL hold, 2nd −156 4–0 W +4.5%
Oct 1 at Fade Bot CBJ hold, 2nd −525 3–6 W +0.3%
Oct 1 at Fade Bot PHI hold, 2nd −186 3–2 L -9.3%
Sep 30 at Daily Analyzer COL ML −185 4–8 W +0.4%
Sep 29 at Fade Bot VAN hold, 3rd −194 6–5 W +2.8%

Wins and losses read the same way, in the same row: W +2.8% L -1.0%

Last season, in full.

Both V2 systems, paper traded across 2025-26, with what broke and what changed.

Fade Bot V2

NHL in-game, paper, 121 trades
93-28
77.0%Win rate
+83.4%Return on capital
93 won28 lost

Backs the team protecting a one-goal lead, entering on a live clock in a window a few minutes wide. Picks are never published, only results. V3 is in development: it adds a two-minute cooldown after every goal, so an entry is never priced off a market still repricing the goal it just saw.

Daily Analyzer V2

NHL pre-game, paper, 181 bets
107-74
59.1%Win rate
107 won74 lost

The Olympic break was a regime shift. Matchup accuracy, the model's strongest input, was cut in half, and March carried the losses. This season adds flat stake caps after mid-February, decaying head-to-head records and a playoff-contention filter.